Rogue Wave Prediction Tool Could Warn Of Impending Disaster

(Photo : Getty Images/Oli Scarff) Researchers believe they have successfully developed a system that gives an early rogue wave warning to vessels.

Researchers believe they have successfully developed a system that gives an early rogue wave warning to vessels.

Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology developed the technology, which could save the lives of crewmembers aboard vessels that are struck by rogue waves, writes Tech Times.

Rogue waves can strike with no warning, reaching heights of up to eight times higher than the surrounding sea, completely submerging vessels - even in seemingly calm waters. The new prediction tool could give crewmembers two or three minutes to prepare the vessel for an incoming rogue wave.

While freak waves have been documented for hundreds of years, they have been widely considered a dangerous phenomenon during the past few decades.

Currently, predicting the onset of a rogue wave would require each vessel to be equipped with a room full of supercomputers - equipment too big for small boats and ships. But the new prediction tool could allow sailors enough time to shut down essential operations on the vessel.

"It's precise in the sense that it's telling us very accurately the location and the time that this rare event will happen," Themis Sapsis, assistant professor at MIT, said in a press release.

"We have a range of possibilities, and we can say that this will be a dangerous wave, and you'd better do something. That's really all you need," he added.

MIT engineers looked at the formation of rogue waves, which was based on observations that waves can sometimes group together while travelling the ocean. The researchers found that these waves could swap energy - eventually leading to the creation of a freak wave.

Using data measurements from selected buoys and the nonlinear analysis of underlying water wave equations, the researchers were able to identify common patterns in wave groupings that could lead to a rogue wave forming.
They calculated which wave groupings could lead to the formation of a rogue wave and quantified the chances. Using this data, they were able to develop an algorithm to predict an incoming rogue wave.

"The approach is original - it is fast, easy to implement, and it does not require computational power," Miguel Onorato, professor of physics at the University of Turin said. He was not part of the study.

"Tests in wave basins and field measurements data are needed in order to establish reliability of the tool in realistic conditions," he added.

The method requires a laptop, LIDAR and RADAR in order to function. This technology could give crew enough time to vacate the deck take other precautions before being hit by a rogue wave.